New Zealand's population growth has slowed significantly, with a recent report revealing a decline of tens of thousands. The nation's population growth rate has dropped from 2.3% in 2023 to 1.7% in 2024 and a mere 0.7% in the year ending June 2025, according to Statistics NZ. This trend is mirrored in Wairarapa, where population growth has nearly halted, aligning with the national average. The slowdown is primarily attributed to a decrease in international migration, with net migrant numbers plummeting from 108,400 in 2023 to 70,400 in 2024 and a mere 13,700 in 2025. Masterton, however, experienced a growth rate of 0.7%, the 11th highest in the country, matching the national average. Interestingly, South Wairarapa's population grew by a minuscule 0.1%, while Carterton's population actually shrank by -0.2%. Infometrics' principal economist, Nick Brunsdon, attributes the figures to a shift in people's preferences, stating, 'Many people are currently deciding New Zealand is not where they want to be. There are not as many people coming in, and more are leaving.' The slowdown in international migration is the key driver behind the numbers, he said. The population slowdown came off a peak net growth of 108,000 in 2023, surpassing pre-Covid levels. In terms of percentage population growth, 2023 was the fastest since the 1950s, at 2.3%, with a post-Covid surge in numbers due to border openings. The percentages translate to Masterton gaining about 200 people, Carterton losing about 100, and South Wairarapa gaining about 100. This represents a loss of approximately ten people offshore and a gain of about 170. Net migration is the difference between immigrants and emigrants over a specific period. Carterton Mayor Steve Cretney acknowledges the district's regulatory and building department's decline in building consents and subdivisions, aligning with national trends. He believes recent government announcements reducing earthquake-prone building requirements and cutting red tape for granny flats will boost confidence and growth. The council is actively working to support local businesses, making the town center more attractive to new residents and businesses. Brunsdon highlights the significant economic impacts of reduced population growth, stating, 'Having less population growth means less pressure on the housing market.' He adds, 'It's a key factor in the housing market being so flat right now. Not having as much growth in the population means there is not as much growth across all aspects of the economy. It helps the economy when there are more people.' The trend is evident across New Zealand, with population growth slowing down nationwide. A report to the Masterton district council's meeting revealed a uniform pattern, with every territorial authority facing the same or slower growth in 2025 compared to 2024. Every single territorial authority experienced a lower rate of growth in 2025 than in 2024, with no exceptions. Underpinning the national growth of 0.7%, New Zealand's districts' numbers ranged from growth of 2.4% to a decline of 0.4%. Most areas grew to some degree, but 18 areas saw their population decline in 2025, and four saw no change. Brunsdon predicts an aging population and the need for more migrants over the next five to ten years to sustain the current way of life.
